Engqungqutheleni Yebhethri Yamandla Omhlaba ka-2022, uZeng Yuqun, usihlalo we-CATL (300750) (SZ300750, inani lesitoko elingu-532 yuan, inani lemakethe elingu-1.3 trillion yuan), uthe amabhethri ahlukile kuwoyela.Amafutha awasekho ngemva kokusetshenziswa, futhi izinto eziningi ezisebhethrini Zonke ziyakwazi ukugaywa kabusha."Thatha iBangpu yethu njengesibonelo, izinga lokutholwa kwe-nickel, i-cobalt, ne-manganese selifinyelele ku-99.3%, futhi izinga lokutholwa kwe-lithium nalo selifinyelele ngaphezu kuka-90%.
Kodwa-ke, lesi sitatimende siye sabuzwa abantu abahlobene ne "Lithium King" Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466) (SZ002466, intengo yesitoko 116.85 yuan, inani lemakethe 191.8 billion yuan).Ngokusho kwe-Southern Finance, umuntu ovela emnyangweni wokuphatha ukutshalwa kwezimali we-Tianqi Lithium Industry uthe ukugaywa kabusha kwe-lithium kumabhethri e-lithium kungenzeka ngokombono, kodwa ukugaywa kabusha nokuphinda kusetshenziswe ngezinga elikhulu akukwazi ukufezwa kwizicelo zentengiso.
Uma kungenangqondo enkulu “ukuxoxa ngezinga lokugaywa kabusha eceleni kwevolumu yokugaywa kabusha”, ingabe ukugaywa kabusha kwamanje kwezisetshenziswa ngokugaywa kabusha kwebhethri kungakwanelisa isidingo semakethe sezisetshenziswa ze-lithium?
Ukugaywa kabusha kwebhethri: kugcwele imibono, kuncane kweqiniso
U-Yu Qingjiao, usihlalo weKomidi Lebhethri le-100 kanye nonobhala-jikelele we-Zhongguancun (000931) New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, uthe engxoxweni ye-WeChat nentatheli evela ku-Daily Economic News ngoJulayi 23 ukuthi ukuhlinzekwa kwamanje kwe-lithium ithembela ezinsizeni ze-lithium zaphesheya ngenxa yesilinganiso sokugaywa kabusha kwebhethri.Incane uma kuqhathaniswa.
“Ivolumu yokugaywa kabusha kwethiyori yamabhethri e-lithium-ion asetshenzisiwe e-China ngo-2021 iphezulu kakhulu njengoba ifinyelela kumathani angama-591,000, lapho ivolumu yokugaywa kabusha kwamabhethri asetshenzisiwe angamathani angama-294,000, ivolumu yokuphinda igaywe kabusha engu-3C namandla amancane asetshenziswa amabhethri e-lithium-ion. ingamathani angu-242,000, kanye nenani lethiyori lokugaywa kabusha kwezinye izinto ezilahlwayo ezihlobene Umthamo ungamathani angama-55,000.Kodwa lokhu kungombono kuphela.Eqinisweni, ngenxa yezinto ezifana namashaneli angasebenzi kahle, umthamo wangempela wokugaywa kabusha uzokwehliswa,” kusho u-Yu Qingjiao.
U-Mo Ke, umhlaziyi omkhulu we-True Lithium Research, naye utshele izintatheli engxoxweni yocingo ukuthi i-Tianqi Lithium ilungile ukusho ukuthi "ayikatholakali ngokwezentengiso" ngoba ubunzima obukhulu manje ukuthi amabhethri agaywa kanjani kabusha."Okwamanje, uma uneziqu, kuyibhizinisi lokugaywa kabusha kwebhethri ye-lithium, futhi inani lamabhethri asetshenzisiwe elingawaphinda lisetshenziswe cishe ku-10% kuya ku-20% wayo yonke imakethe."
U-Lin Shi, iphini likanobhala-jikelele we-Intelligent Network Professional Committee ye-China Communications Industry Association, utshele izintatheli engxoxweni ne-WeChat: “Kumele sinake okushiwo nguZeng Yuqun: 'Ngo-2035, sesingakwazi ukuvuselela izinto ezivela kumabhethri asetshenziselwe umhlalaphansi. ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zenani elikhulu labantu.Ingxenye yesidingo semakethe', ngu-2022 kuphela, ngubani owaziyo ukuthi kuzokwenzekani eminyakeni eyi-13?"
U-Lin Shi ukholelwa ukuthi uma ingathengiswa ngezinga elikhulu eminyakeni engaphezu kweyishumi, izinto ze-lithium zisazoba novalo kakhulu okungenani esikhathini esizayo esiseduze.“Amanzi akude awakwazi ukucisha ukoma.”
“Empeleni sonke siyabona manje ukuthi izimoto ezintsha ezisebenza ngamandla zikhula ngesivinini, amabhethri acinene, nezinto zokusetshenziswa ziyashoda.Ngicabanga ukuthi imboni yamanje yokugaywa kabusha kwebhethri isesigabeni sokucatshangelwa.Ngisenethemba ngezinkampani ezisohlwini zezinto ze-lithium engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.Lesi sici somkhakha Isimo sezinto ezishoda nge-lithium kunzima ukusishintsha, ”kusho uLin Shi.
Kungabonakala ukuthi imboni yokugaywa kabusha kwebhethri yamandla isesigabeni sokuqala sokuthuthuka.Kunzima ukugcwalisa igebe lokuhlinzekwa kwezinsiza ze-lithium ngokusebenzisa kabusha izinsiza.Ngakho ingabe lokhu kungenzeka esikhathini esizayo?
U-Yu Qingjiao ukholelwa ukuthi esikhathini esizayo, iziteshi zokugaywa kabusha kwebhethri zizoba ngesinye seziteshi eziyinhloko zokuhlinzekwa kwe-nickel, i-cobalt, i-lithium nezinye izinsiza.Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngemva kuka-2030, kungenzeka ukuthi u-50% wezinsiza ezingenhla uzovela ekugayweni kabusha.
I-Industry Pain Point 1: Imali embi ixosha imali enhle
Nakuba "okufanelekile kugcwele", inqubo yokubona okuhle inzima kakhulu.Ezinkampanini ezigaya kabusha amabhethri kagesi, zisabhekene nesimo esibangela amahloni sokuthi “ibutho elivamile alikwazi ukunqoba izinkundla zokucobelelana ngolwazi ezincane.”
UMo Ke uthe: “Eqinisweni, amabhethri amaningi angaqoqwa manje, kodwa amaningi awo athathwa ama-workshop amancane angenazo iziqu.”
Kungani kwenzeka lesi simo esithi "imali embi exosha imali enhle"?UMo Ke uthe uma umthengi esethenge imoto ubunikazi bebhethri busuke bungobomthengi, hhayi umenzi wemoto, ngakho-ke onenani eliphezulu uzojwayele ukuyithola.
Ama-workshops amancane ngokuvamile anganikeza amanani aphezulu.Omunye wangaphakathi embonini owake wasebenza njengesikhulu enkampanini ehamba phambili yokugaywa kabusha kwamabhethri utshele intatheli yeDaily Economic News ocingweni ukuthi ibhidi eliphezulu kungenxa yokuthi iworkshop encane ayizange yakhe izinsiza ezisekelayo ngokuhambisana nezidingo zemithetho, njenge njengokwelashwa kokuvikela imvelo, ukuhlanza indle nezinye izinto zokusebenza.
“Uma le mboni ifuna ukuthuthuka ngendlela enempilo, kumele itshale imali ngendlela efanele.Isibonelo, lapho kugaywa kabusha i-lithium, kuzoba khona indle, amanzi angcolile, negesi engcolile, futhi kufanele kwakhiwe izindawo zokuvikela imvelo. "Abangaphakathi embonini okukhulunywe ngabo ngenhla bathi ukutshalwa kwezimali ezikhungweni zokuvikela imvelo kukhulu kakhulu.Yebo, kungabiza kalula ngaphezu kwama-yuan ayizigidi eziyinkulungwane.
Umuntu ongaphakathi embonini uthe izindleko zokuvuselela ithani elilodwa le-lithium zingaba izinkulungwane ezimbalwa, ezivela ezikhungweni zokuvikela imvelo.Akunakwenzeka ukuthi ama-workshops amaningi amancane atshale kuwo, ngakho-ke angabhida phezulu uma kuqhathaniswa, kodwa empeleni Akuzuzisi ekuthuthukiseni imboni.
I-Industrial Pain Point 2: Intengo Ephezulu Yebhethri Yamabhethri Alahlwayo
Ukwengeza, ngezintengo eziphakeme zezinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhuphukayo, izinkampani ezigaya kabusha amabhethri kagesi nazo zibhekene nenkinga “yamanani aphezulu amabhethri asewathatha umhlalaphansi” anyusa izindleko zokugaywa kabusha.
U-Mo Ke uthe: “Ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo emkhakheni wezinsizakusebenza okhuphuka nomfula kuzokwenza uhlangothi lwesidingo lugxile kakhulu emkhakheni wokugaywa kabusha.Kuke kwaba nesikhathi ekupheleni konyaka odlule kanti ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka amabhethri asetshenziswa abiza kakhulu kunamabhethri amasha.Lesi yisizathu.”
U-Mo Ke uthe uma izinhlangano ezidinga usizo ezansi nomfula zisayina izinkontileka nezinkampani ezigaya kabusha, zizovumelana ngokuhlinzekwa kwezinsiza.Esikhathini esedlule, uhlangothi lwesidingo lwaluvame ukuvala amehlo ekutheni isivumelwano sifezeke ngempela, futhi lwalungenandaba nenani lezinsiza ezigaywe kabusha.Kodwa-ke, uma izintengo zezinsiza zikhuphuka kakhulu, ukuze kwehliswe izindleko, zizodinga izinkampani ezigaya kabusha Ngokuqinile zigcwalisa inkontileka ziphoqa izinkampani ezigaya kabusha ukuthi zithathe amabhethri asesebenzile futhi zikhuphule intengo yamabhethri asetshenzisiwe.
U-Yu Qingjiao uthe inkambiso yentengo yamabhethri e-lithium asetshenzisiwe, amapuleti e-electrode, impushana emnyama yebhethri, njll. ivamise ukuguquguquka nenani lezinto zebhethri.Ngaphambilini, ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo yezinto zebhethri kanye nokuqothuka kokuziphatha okuqagelayo okufana “nokuqongelela” kanye “ne-hype”, amabhethri asetshenziswa amandla Izintengo zokugaywa kabusha nazo zikhuphuke kakhulu.Muva nje, njengoba izintengo zezinto ezifana ne-lithium carbonate zizinzile, ukuguquguquka kwentengo ekugayweni kabusha kwamabhethri asetshenzisiwe sekuthambile.
Ngakho-ke, indlela yokubhekana nezinkinga ezibalulwe ngenhla "zemali embi ixosha imali enhle" kanye "namanani aphezulu esibhakabhakeni amabhethri asetshenzisiwe" futhi ikhuthaze ukuthuthukiswa okunempilo komkhakha wokuvuselela amabhethri?
UMo Ke ukholelwa ukuthi: “Amabhethri kadoti ayizimayini zasemadolobheni.Ezinkampanini ezigaya kabusha, empeleni zithenga 'izimayini'.Okufanele bakwenze ukuthola izindlela zokuqinisekisa ukutholakala kwabo 'kwezimayini'.Yebo, indlela yokuzinzisa 'izimayini' Intengo nayo ingenye yezinto ezicatshangelwayo ezibaluleke kakhulu, futhi ikhambi liwukwakha imigudu yayo yokugaywa kabusha.”
U-Yu Qingjiao unikeze iziphakamiso ezintathu: “Okokuqala, yenza ukuhlela okusezingeni eliphezulu kusukela ezingeni likazwelonke, ngesikhathi esifanayo uqinise izinqubomgomo zokusekela nezinqubomgomo zokulawula, futhi umise imboni yokugaywa kabusha kwamabhethri;okwesibili, ukuthuthukisa ukugaywa kabusha kwebhethri, ezokuthutha, isitoreji kanye namanye amazinga, futhi kusungulwe ubuchwepheshe namamodeli ebhizinisi, kuthuthukise izinga lokugaywa kabusha kwezinto ezifanele futhi kuthuthukise inzuzo yenkampani;okwesithathu, ukulawula okusemthethweni, ukukhuthaza ukuqaliswa kwemiklamo efanele yemiboniso isinyathelo ngesinyathelo futhi uvumelane nezimo zendawo, futhi uqaphele ukwethula ngokungaboni amaphrojekthi okusetshenziswa kwezigaba zendawo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Dec-23-2023