Muva nje, i-CINNO Research ikhiphe idatha yakamuva.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuJuni 2023, utshalomali olusha lwephrojekthi yamandla e-China lufinyelele ku-5.2 trillion yuan (kuhlanganisa ne-Taiwan), futhi imboni yezamandla entsha isiphenduke indawo ebalulekile yokutshala izimali ezimbonini zobuchwepheshe ezisafufusa.
Ngokombono wokuwohloka kwezimali zangaphakathi, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuJuni 2023, izimali zokutshalwa kwezimali e-China (kuhlanganise ne-Taiwan) imboni yamandla entsha yageleza ngokuyinhloko ku-photovoltaics yamandla omoya, enenani elilinganiselwa ku-2.5 trillion yuan, elibalelwa ku-46.9%;ukutshalwa kwezimali okuphelele kwamabhethri e-lithium Inani liyi-1.2 trillion yuan, lilinganiselwa ku-22.6%;inani lokutshalwa kwezimali endaweni yokugcina amandla lingama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-950, okubalelwa ku-18.1%;inani lokutshalwa kwezimali kumandla we-hydrogen lidlula ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-490, okubalelwa ku-9.5%.
Ngokombono wezinkampani ezintathu ezinkulu zokutshala izimali, i-photovoltaics yamandla omoya, amabhethri e-lithium kanye nokugcinwa kwamandla yizinkampani ezintathu ezinkulu zokutshala imali embonini entsha yamandla.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuJuni 2023, izimali zokutshala izimali ze-photovoltaic e-China (kuhlanganise ne-Taiwan) zigeleza ikakhulukazi kumaseli e-photovoltaic, kuyilapho izimali zokutshala amandla omoya zigeleza ikakhulukazi kumaphrojekthi okusebenza kwamandla omoya;Izimali zokutshala izimali zebhethri ye-lithium zigeleza ikakhulukazi kumamojula webhethri ye-lithium kanye ne-PACK;Izimali zokutshala imali zokugcinwa kwamandla zigelezela kusitoreji esinamandla.
Ngokombono wokusatshalaliswa kwezindawo, izimali zokutshalwa kwezimali embonini yamandla amasha zisatshalaliswa kakhulu e-Inner Mongolia, eXinjiang naseJiangsu, kanti ingxenye isiyonke yezifunda ezintathu ilinganiselwa ku-37.7%.Phakathi kwabo, i-Xinjiang kanye ne-Inner Mongolia baye bazuza ekwakhiweni kwezisekelo zomoya-solar kanye namaphrojekthi esisekelo samandla, futhi babe nesitoko esikhulu kakhulu somthamo ofakiwe we-photovoltaic, futhi uma kuqhathaniswa nokusatshalaliswa, ikakhulukazi phakathi nendawo.
Ngokwemininingwane yakamuva ekhishwe isikhungo socwaningo saseNingizimu Korea i-SNE Research, engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2023, ukufakwa kwebhethri lamandla okubhalisiwe okusanda kubhaliswa kuzoba ngu-304.3GWh, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-50.1%.
Uma sibheka izinkampani ezingu-TOP10 ezifaka amabhethri kagesi emhlabeni wonke engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, izinkampani zaseShayina zisathatha izihlalo eziyisithupha, okuyiNingde Times, BYD, China Innovation Aviation, EVE Lithium Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech neSunwoda, enemakethe ephelele. isabelo esingafika ku-62.6%.
Ngokukhethekile, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, i-Ningde Times yaseChina ikleliswe kuqala ngesabelo semakethe esingu-36.8%, futhi umthamo wayo wokulayisha ibhethri ukhuphuke ngo-56.2% unyaka nonyaka wafinyelela ku-112GWh;Isabelo semakethe silandela eduze;Umthamo wokufakwa kwebhethri ka-Zhongxinhang ukhuphuke ngo-58.8% unyaka nonyaka wafinyelela ku-13GWh, ukleliswe endaweni yesithupha ngesabelo semakethe esingu-4.3%;Ivolumu yokufaka ibhethri ye-lithium ye-EVE inyuke ngo-151.7% unyaka nonyaka yaya ku-6.6GWh, ikleliswe endaweni yesi-8 ngesabelo semakethe esingu-2.2%;Ivolumu yokufaka ibhethri ye-Guoxuan Hi-Tech yenyuke ngo-17.8% unyaka nonyaka yaya ku-6.5GWh, ikleliswe endaweni yesi-9 ngesabelo semakethe esingu-2.1%;Ivolumu yokufaka ibhethri ye-Sunwoda unyaka nonyaka Inyuke ngo-44.9% yaya ku-4.6GWh, ikleliswe endaweni ye-10 ngesabelo semakethe esingu-1.5%.Phakathi kwazo, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, amandla afakiwe e-BYD kanye ne-Yiwei lithium-energy amabhethri azuze ukukhula okunamadijithi amathathu unyaka nonyaka.
Inethiwekhi yamabhethri yaqaphela ukuthi ngokwesabelo semakethe, phakathi kwezingu-10 eziphezulu zokufakwa kwebhethri lamandla omhlaba engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, isabelo semakethe sezinkampani ezine zaseChina i-CATL, BYD, Zhongxinhang, kanye ne-Yiwei Lithium Energy ezuzwe unyaka nonyaka. ukukhula.USunwoda wenqabile.Phakathi kwezinkampani zaseJapan nezaseKorea, isabelo semakethe se-LG New Energy sahlala siphansi uma siqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, kuyilapho i-Panasonic, i-SK on, ne-Samsung SDI zonke zibone ukwehla konyaka nonyaka kwesabelo semakethe engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, uMnyango Wezimboni Nezobuchwepheshe umemezele ukusebenza kwemboni yebhethri ye-lithium-ion engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2023, okubonisa ukuthi engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2023, imboni yebhethri ye-lithium-ion yezwe lami izoqhubeka nokukhula.Ngokwezibalo ezijwayelekile zezimemezelo zebhizinisi kanye nezibalo zenhlangano yezimboni, ukukhiqizwa kwebhethri le-lithium kuzwelonke engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka kudlule i-400GWh, okuwukukhuphuka okungaphezu kuka-43% unyaka nonyaka, kanye nemali engenayo yemboni yebhethri ye-lithium ingxenye yokuqala yonyaka ifinyelele ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-600.
Ngokuphathelene namabhethri e-lithium, ukukhishwa kwamabhethri okugcina amandla engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka kudlule i-75GWh, futhi umthamo ofakiwe wamabhethri wamandla wezimoto ezintsha zamandla wawucishe ube ngu-152GWh.Inani lokuthekelisa lemikhiqizo yebhethri ye-lithium lenyuke ngo-69% unyaka nonyaka.
Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ukukhiqizwa kwezinto zokwakha ze-cathode, izinto ze-anode, izihlukanisi, nama-electrolyte kwakucishe kube amathani ayizigidi eziyi-1, amathani ayi-670,000, ama-square metres ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-6.8, namathani angama-440,000 ngokulandelana.
Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ukukhiqizwa kwe-lithium carbonate ne-lithium hydroxide kwafinyelela amathani ayi-205,000 kanye namathani ayi-140,000 ngokulandelana, kanye namanani ajwayelekile e-lithium carbonate ebangeni lebhethri kanye nebanga lebhethri le-lithium hydroxide (ibanga lempushana) engxenyeni yokuqala unyaka bekuyi-332,000 yuan/ton kanye ne-364,000 yuan/ton ngokulandelanayo.Ithani.
Mayelana nokuthunyelwa kwe-electrolyte, “Iphepha Elimhlophe Lokuthuthukiswa Kwemboni yebhethri ye-Lithium-ion Battery Electrolyte yaseChina (2023)” elikhishwe izikhungo zocwaningo i-EVTank, i-Evie Economic Research Institute kanye ne-China Battery Industry Research Institute libonisa ukuthi engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka. , Ukuthunyelwa kwe-electrolyte yebhethri ye-lithium-ion yaseChina Umthamo ungamathani angu-504,000, futhi usayizi wemakethe ungama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-24.19.I-EVTank ibikezela ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwe-electrolyte yaseChina kuzofinyelela kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.169 ngo-2023.
Mayelana namabhethri e-sodium-ion, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, amabhethri e-sodium-ion azuze imiphumela enqamulelayo ocwaningweni nasekuthuthukisweni komkhiqizo, ukwakhiwa kwamandla okukhiqiza, ukutshalwa kwe-industrial chain, ukuqinisekiswa kwamakhasimende, ukuthuthukiswa kwezinga lesivuno, kanye nokukhuthazwa kokuboniswa. amaphrojekthi.Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-“White Paper on Development of China’s Sodium-ion Battery Industry (2023)” ekhishwe izikhungo zocwaningo i-EVTank, i-Evie Economic Research Institute kanye ne-China Battery Industry Research Institute, ekupheleni kukaJuni 2023, amandla okukhiqiza azinikele. amabhethri e-sodium-ion afakwe ekukhiqizweni ezweni lonke afinyelele ku-10GWh, okuwukunyuka kwe-8GWh uma kuqhathaniswa nokuphela kuka-2022.
Ngokolwazi oluvela ku-National Energy Administration, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, amandla afakiwe asanda kufakwa ayelinganiselwa ezigidini ezingu-8.63 kW/17.72 million kWh, okulingana nesamba samandla afakiwe eminyakeni edlule.Ngokombono wesilinganiso sokutshalwa kwezimali, ngokusekelwe kumanani emakethe amanje, okusanda kufakwa ekusebenzeni kwesitoreji samandla esisha kuqhuba ukutshalwa kwezimali okuqondile kwama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-30.Kusukela ekupheleni kukaJuni 2023, umthamo ofakiwe wephrojekthi entsha yokugcina amandla akhiwe futhi asetshenziswa ezweni lonke idlula izigidi eziyi-17.33 kW/35.8 million kWh, kanti isikhathi sokugcina amandla esimaphakathi amahora angu-2.1.
Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-Traffic Management Bureau yoMnyango Wezokuphepha Komphakathi, ekupheleni kukaJuni 2023, isibalo sezimoto ezintsha zamandla ezweni sifinyelele ezigidini eziyi-16.2, ezibalelwa ku-4.9% yenani eliphelele lezimoto.Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, izimoto ezintsha ezisebenza ngogesi eziyizigidi ezi-3.128 bezisanda kubhaliswa ezweni lonke, okuwukukhula konyaka ngo-41.6%, okuyirekhodi eliphezulu.
Ngokusho kwedatha yakamuva evela ku-China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ukukhiqizwa nokuthengiswa kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla ezweni lami kwaba yizigidi ezingu-3.788 kanye nezigidi ezingu-3.747, ngokulandelana, ukwanda ngo-42.4% no-44.1% ngonyaka. -ngonyaka, futhi isabelo semakethe sifinyelele ku-28.3%;ukuphuma okunqwabelanayo kwamabhethri wamandla kube ngu-293.6GWh, Ukukhula konyaka nonyaka okungama-36.8%;ukuthengiswa okuhlanganisiwe kwamabhethri kagesi kufinyelele ku-256.5GWh, okuwukukhuphuka konyaka nonyaka ngo-17.5%;umthamo ofakiwe ohlanganisiwe wamabhethri kagesi ube ngu-152.1GWh, okuwukukhuphuka konyaka nonyaka ngama-38.1%;ingqalasizinda eshajayo inyuke ngamayunithi ayizigidi eziyi-1.442.
Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-State Administration of Taxation, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, imoto entsha yemoto yamandla kanye nokwehliswa kwentela yomkhumbi kanye nokukhululwa kufinyelele ku-860 million yuan, ukukhuphuka konyaka ngo-41.2%;ukukhululwa kwentela yokuthengwa kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla kufinyelele kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-49.17, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-44.1%.
Ngokuphathelene nokukhumbula, idatha evela ku-State Administration for Market Regulation ibonisa ukuthi engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, ngokuphathelene nokukhumbula imoto yasekhaya, inani le-80 lokukhumbula laqaliswa, elibandakanya izimoto eziyizigidi ezingu-2.4746.Phakathi kwazo, ngokombono wezimoto zamandla amasha, abakhiqizi bezimoto abangu-19 basebenzise isamba sokukhumbula okungu-29, okubandakanya izimoto eziyizigidi ezingu-1.4265, okudlule inani eliphelele lokukhumbula imoto yamandla amasha ngonyaka odlule.Engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, ingqikithi yenani lezimoto ezintsha ezibuyiswayo zathatha ama-58% yenani eliphelele lokukhunjulwa engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, okubalelwa cishe ku-60%.
Mayelana nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, idatha evela ku-China Association of Automobile Manufacturers ibonisa ukuthi engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, izwe lami lathumela ngaphandle kwezimoto ezintsha ezingu-534,000 zamandla, okuwukunyuka konyaka izikhathi ezingu-1.6;izinkampani zamabhethri anamandla zikhiphe amabhethri angu-56.7GWh kanye no-6.3GWh wamabhethri okugcina amandla.
Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-General Administration of Customs, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, inani eliphelele lemikhiqizo "emisha emithathu" yezwe lami, okungukuthi, izimoto zikagesi zabagibeli, amabhethri e-lithium, namaseli elanga, akhuphuke ngo-61.6%, ukushayela. ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe sekukonke ngamaphesenti angu-1.8, kanti imboni ekhiqiza imvelo inomfutho omningi.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, inethiwekhi yebhethri (i-mybattery) iphinde yabala ukutshalwa kwezimali nokunwetshwa kwalo lonke uchungechunge lwemboni yebhethri yasekhaya engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ukuhlanganiswa nokutholwa, ukubekwa kwesisekelo, ukukhiqizwa kwesilingo, nokusayinda i-oda.Ngokusho kwedatha, ngokwezibalo ezingaphelele zenethiwekhi yebhethri, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, inani lamaphrojekthi wokukhulisa utshalomali we-223 afakiwe ezibalweni, lapho i-182 yamemezela inani lokutshalwa kwezimali, ngokutshalwa kwezimali okuphelele kokungaphezulu. ngaphezu kwama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-937.7.Ngokuphathelene nokuhlanganiswa nokutholwa, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ngaphandle komcimbi wokuqedwa kokuthengiselana, kwakukhona amacala angaphezu kuka-33 ahlobene nokuhlanganiswa nokutholwa endaweni yebhethri ye-lithium, lapho i-26 yamemezela inani lokuthengiselana, nenani eliphelele. isamba esingaba yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-17.5 zamayuan.Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, bekunamaphrojekthi okubeka isisekelo angu-125, angu-113 awo amemezela inani lokutshalwa kwezimali, nokutshalwa kwezimali okuphelele kwama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-521.891, kanye nenani lokutshalwa kwezimali elilinganiselwe lama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-4.619;62 ukukhiqizwa kwecala kanye namaphrojekthi okuthuma, 45 umemezele inani utshalomali, ingqikithi Over 157.928 bhiliyoni yuan, kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali isilinganiso yuan bhiliyoni 3.51.Mayelana nokusayinwa kwe-oda, engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, izinkampani zamaketanga emboni yebhethri yasekhaya zithole isamba sama-oda angama-58 ekhaya naphesheya, ikakhulukazi amabhethri e-lithium, amasistimu webhethri okugcina amandla kanye nama-oda wempahla eluhlaza.
Mayelana nokusebenza, ngokwezibalo zenethiwekhi yebhethri, izinkampani ezisohlwini lwe-battery energy industry chain zidalule ulwazi lwesibikezelo sokusebenza engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, okubonisa ukuthi engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ukusebenza lonke uchungechunge lwemboni yamandla amasha ebhethri lunciphe kakhulu, futhi umfutho wokukhula oqinile unqamukile.Izici zivezwa kakhulu embonini yebhethri: injabulo exubile nosizi!Ukukhula kwesidingo esibuthakathaka kuncipha;izinkampani zezimayini: ukusebenza kwe-dives!Inani nenani eliphindwe kabili lokubulala + inzuzo yonke ihliswe ngohhafu;umphakeli wezinto ezibonakalayo: ukusebenza nokuduma kwezulu!Ukulahlekelwa okubili okukhulu kwe-lithium iron phosphate;ifektri yemishini: ukukhula okuphindwe kabili unyaka nonyaka!Impumelelo engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka njengomfundi ohamba phambili embonini.Sekukonke, kusenezinselelo ngemuva kwamathuba ochungechungeni lwemboni yamandla amasha ebhethri.Indlela yokuthola ukuma okuqinile endaweni yemakethe eyinkimbinkimbi kanye nenqubo yentuthuko eneziyaluyalu kusazoxazululwa.
Ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezedlule, i-Passenger Federation yathi inani elikhulu lemikhiqizo emisha encintisanayo izokwethulwa emakethe yamandla amasha engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, okulindeleke ukuthi ilethe ukukhula emakethe yamandla amasha engxenyeni yesibili unyaka futhi usekele ukuthengiswa kwemakethe jikelele.
I-Passenger Association ibikezela ukuthi ukudayiswa kwezimoto zabagibeli ngomqondo omncane ngoJulayi kulindeleke ukuthi kube amayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-1.73, inyanga nenyanga -8.6% kanye nonyaka-ngonyaka -4.8%, lapho ukuthengiswa kwamandla amasha. ukuthengiswa cishe kungamayunithi angu-620,000, inyanga nenyanga -6.8%, ukunyuka konyaka ngo-27.5%, kanye nezinga lokungena libalelwa ku-35.8%.
Uma sibheka idatha kaJulayi ekhishwe yimikhiqizo yamandla amasha ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti, mayelana namabutho amasha okwenza izimoto, ngoJulayi, umthamo wokulethwa kwamabutho amasha amahlanu okwenza izimoto wedlula izimoto ze-10,000.Ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabili;I-Weilai Automobile ilethe izimoto ezingaphezu kuka-20,000, irekhodi eliphakeme;ILeap Motors ilethe izimoto eziyi-14,335;I-Xiaopeng Motors ilethe izimoto eziyi-11,008, yafinyelela esiqongweni esisha sezimoto eziyi-10,000;I-Nezha Motors ilethe izimoto ezintsha Izimoto ezingaphezu kuka-10,000;I-Skyworth Automobile ilethe izimoto ezintsha ezingu-3,452, zadayisa izimoto ezingaphezu kuka-3,000 izinyanga ezimbili zilandelana.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izinkampani zezimoto zendabuko nazo ziyasheshisa ukwamukela kwazo amandla amasha.NgoJulayi, i-SAIC Motor idayise izimoto ezintsha ezisebenza ngamandla angu-91,000 ngoJulayi, iqhubekisela phambili ukukhula okuhle kwenyanga nenyanga kusukela ngoJanuwari futhi yashaya into ecokeme unyaka wonke;Ukuphumelela kwanyanga zonke kwamayunithi angama-45,000;Ukuthengiswa kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla kwaGeely Automobile kufinyelele ezinkulungwaneni ezingama-41,014, okuyizinga eliphezulu elisha lonyaka, okunyuke ngama-28% unyaka nonyaka;Izimoto ezidayiswa yiChangan Automobile zezimoto ezintsha ezisebenza ngamandla ngoNtulikazi bezingamayunithi angama-39,500, okuwukukhula konyaka ngo-62.8%;Ukuthengiswa kweGreat Wall Motors kwezimoto zabagibeli ezinamandla eziyizi-28,896, okuwukukhula konyaka ngo-163%;umthamo wokudayiswa kwezimoto zakwaCeles ezintsha ezisebenza ngogesi ubuyizi-6,934;I-Dongfeng Lantu Automobile ilethe izimoto ezintsha ezingu-3,412…
I-Changjiang Securities iveze ukuthi ukuthuthukiswa kwezimoto zamandla amasha engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule okulindelekile.Ngokombono wokusebenza kwetheminali, isidingo samanje sikhula kancane kancane, izinga lempahla lisesimweni esinempilo, futhi izinga lentengo lizinzile uma kuqhathaniswa.Esikhathini esifushane, izinqubomgomo nemingcele yemakethe izothuthuka, futhi "impi yamanani" izodamba.Ngokusimama komnotho, amandla amasha kanye nesidingo esiphelele kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthuke;phesheya kwezilwandle ukuqhubeka komnikelo wokukhula okuphezulu kuyanda, futhi ukusungula kulindeleke ukuthi kungene esimweni sokusebenza okuzinzile.
I-Huaxi Securities ithe ngokochungechunge olusha lwemboni yezimoto zamandla, esikhathini esifushane, ukuchithwa kweketanga lemboni yangaphambilini kuphelile + ukugcwaliswa kabusha kwempahla kuqalisiwe + ngenkathi ephakeme yendabuko engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, konke. izixhumanisi kulindeleke ukuthi zingene esigabeni sokukhuphula umkhiqizo.Esikhathini esimaphakathi kanye nesikhathi eside, njengoba amandla okushayela ezimotweni zasekhaya ezisebenza ngamandla amasha asuka kancane kancane asuka ohlangothini lwenqubomgomo aye ohlangothini lwemakethe, izimoto ezisebenza ngamandla amasha sezingene esigabeni sokungena ngesivinini;ukufakwa kukagesi phesheya kwezilwandle kunokuzimisela okucacile, futhi ukuthuthukiswa kwezimoto zamandla amasha emhlabeni jikelele kuzuze ukuzwakala.
I-China Galaxy Securities Research Report ithe ihora elimnyama kakhulu selidlulile, isidingo samatheminali amasha wamandla sesithuthukile, futhi ukususwa kwesitoko kochungechunge lwemboni yebhethri ye-lithium sekuqediwe.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Aug-25-2023